Universities Weblog

Before I make my prediction, follow the math with me if you will…

Number one LSU lost this week. So did number two Kansas. Number three West Virginia beat a ranked opponent (U. Conn.) by forty-five points. And number four Missouri beat number two Kansas by eight points. So Mizzou should leapfrog WVU and move into the number one spot, right?

That's what happened, and I can't figure out why. But that's what happened.

So here's my prediction. I predict that no matter what happens this coming weekend, WVU will fall to at least number three and be kept out of the national title game. If Missouri beats Oklahoma, Ohio State will move to number two and the BCS Championship game will be between them. If Missouri loses, Ohio State will move to number one and play - who? Maybe LSU if they win the SEC Championship game. Maybe Georgia is LSU loses to Tennessee in the SEC title game. Maybe Virginia Tech if Tech beats Boston College in the ACC title game. Maybe even USC if the Trojans can slap down UCLA hard enough. (Imagine all the hype that could be built around that match up…)

But not WVU.

Why not WVU? Because voters seem more impressed with an idle Ohio State then with anything WVU can do. Because WVU plays Pitt (four wins, including a MAC opponent and a I-AA team), and no matter how big WVU wins, the voters will say "Well, Pitt wasn't even ranked." And because the system is flawed (and maybe corrupt).

Danny Strickland thinks BCS pollsters want WVU in the title game (and, probably, that my opinion is ridiculous). He thinks that the BCS falls apart if a two-loss team like LSU or USC plays for the title. Whatever. I think the BCS fell apart the year that undefeated Auburn didn't get invited to play for the title. That's been a couple of years.

Don't get me wrong. I don't have any blue and gold neckties hidden in my closet. My last degree came from Marshall University and the WVU fans I know would be hard to put up with for a year if the Mountaineers won the title. I don't know who should play for it at the moment. And I suppose that's the problem. Half a dozen teams or more have some claim to being the best at the moment and only two of them can be in the game.

So, cynical as it sounds, that's my prediction: not WVU. Win or lose against Pitt on Saturday, no matter what Missouri does in the Big 12 title game this weekend, WVU won't get to play for the national title.

We'll see if I'm right…

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